Markets expect a modest increase of 108,000 jobs in the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, well below the 147,000 added in June. This forecast aligns with recent JOLTS data (July 29), which showed a drop in job openings to 7.437 million, below the expected 7.510 million and sharply lower than 7.712 million previously. This continued decline in job vacancies signals softening labor demand, in line with the lower payroll expectations and a projected unemployment rate of 4.2 %.
This environment supports the narrative of a gradually cooling labor market, not a sudden downturn. For the Federal Reserve, these data suggest the economy is adjusting but not enough to warrant an imminent rate cut. If the payrolls meet expectations, the USD could weaken slightly, while equity indices and gold may benefit from renewed hopes of a more dovish Fed later in the year.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis (H4)
Market Context
EUR/USD has shown strong bearish momentum, breaking prior support levels and forming a new downward structure. Price is currently consolidating just above a key daily support. Volume profile indicates areas of high activity that may act as magnets or resistance zones.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: 1.1503, 1.1545 (Weekly POC / Immediate Resistance), 1.1573 (H4)
- Support: 1.1446 (Daily Support D1), 1.14, 1.1356 (H4), 1.1312 (H4)
- POC: The weekly Point of Control is around 1.1545, marking strong resistance.
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Higher Probability)
This scenario aligns with the recent strong bearish trend. Current pullback suggests a pause before another drop.
- Breakout: A decisive move below the high-volume node near 1.1425 targets 1.14.
- Confirmation: H4 candle close below confirms bearish intent.
- Targets: First at 1.1356 (H4), then 1.1312 and potentially 1.13.
- Drivers: Strong selling pressure and weak demand at current levels.
Scenario 2: Bullish Correction (Lower Probability)
This suggests daily support holds and triggers a rebound or correction before further downside.
- Rebound: Price holds near 1.1425 and rises.
- Resistance Test: First upside target is yesterday’s POC at 1.1476 and 1.1503. Break above may extend to 1.1545, but strong resistance is likely there.
- Failure Risk: Sellers may regain control at 1.1545 to resume the downtrend. A break above 1.1545 opens higher targets but is not the base case.
